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干热风是影响河南省冬小麦后期生长发育及产量的重大农业气象灾害之一,对小麦安全生产造成严重威胁。根据冬小麦干热风国家气象行业标准,基于河南省冬麦区(18个地市)1980-2014年的逐日地面气象观测数据和耕地面积、冬小麦播种面积和产量、灌溉面积等统计资料,利用AHP(层次分析法)和WCA(加权综合评价法)构建以危险性、易损性、敏感性和抗灾能力为主要指标体系的小麦干热风综合风险评估模型,对河南省的干热风风险进行全面评估;并在GIS技术支持下,对其风险分布进行区划和制图表达。结果表明:河南省干热风高风险区域主要分布在驻马店、许昌、豫东商丘、开封和豫北安阳、鹤壁等地;中等风险区域主要位于南阳中东部、周口、豫北新乡、濮阳以及郑州东部和洛阳北部的部分地区;河南西北部济源、焦作以及豫西三门峡和洛阳、豫中部平顶山和漯河、信阳西部等地为干热风低风险区域。
Dry and hot wind is one of the major agrometeorological disasters that affect the late winter wheat growth and yield in Henan Province, which poses a serious threat to the safety of wheat. According to the national meteorological industry standard of winter wheat hot and dry wind, based on daily ground meteorological observation data and cultivated land area, winter wheat sown area and yield, irrigated area and other statistical data of winter wheat district (18 cities) of Henan Province from 1980 to 2014, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and WCA (weighted comprehensive evaluation method) to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model of wheat dry-hot wind with risk, vulnerability, sensitivity and resilience as the main index system to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risk of dry and hot wind in Henan Province. And in the GIS technology support, the risk distribution zoning and mapping. The results showed that the high risk areas of dry and hot wind in Henan Province were mainly distributed in Zhumadian, Xuchang, Shangqiu in eastern Henan, Kaifeng and Anyang and Hebi in the north of Henan. The middle-risk areas were mainly in the middle and eastern Nanyang, Zhoukou, Xinxiang in the north of Henan, Puyang and the eastern part of Zhengzhou And parts of northern Luoyang; Jiyuan and Jiaozuo in northwestern Henan and Sanmenxia and Luoyang in western Henan, Pingdingshan in central Henan and Luohe, western Xinyang and other places are low-risk and dry-hot wind areas.