目的:构建脊柱外科手术后切口感染风险预测评估体系。方法:以失效模式与效应分析（FMEA）为基础，通过文献检索整理出脊柱手术后切口感染的危险因素和评估项目，采用德尔菲专家咨询法进行专家咨询。根据项目的重要性，结合专家意见进行筛选，建立三级评估指标并进行赋分，最终制定术后切口感染风险评估体系。结果:经2轮专家咨询问卷，有效回复率为100%。专家咨询权威程度为0.85，可靠性高；专家咨询的肯德尔协调系数为0.525~0.686，协调程度良好（n P<0.05）。三级评估指标包括3个一级指标，18个二级指标，54个三级指标。选择的重要风险条目包括术前评估条目6项，术后评估条目18项，经过统计分析，得出6个术前预测指标和12个术后预测指标，按照半定量的方法得出高、中、低风险的风险优先系数范围值。n 结论:本研究依据专家咨询和FMEA的方法，建立了一套脊柱外科手术后切口感染风险因素和评估预测工具。“,”Objective:To construct a risk prediction and assessment system for incisional infection after spinal surgery.Methods:Based on the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), risk factors and assessment indicators of postoperative incisional infection in spinal surgery were sorted out through literature search followed by expert consultation using the Delphi expert consultation method. After three-level assessment indicators were selected according to their importance and expert opinions and assigned by different scores, a risk prediction and evaluation system was constructed for postoperative incisional infection after spinal surgery.Results:The 2 rounds of expert consultation questionnaire resulted in an effective response rate of 100%. The degree of expert consultation authority was 0.85, showing high reliability; the Kendall coordination coefficients of expert consultation ranged from 0.525 to 0.686, showing good coordination (n P<0.05). The three-level assessment indicators consisted of 3 primary, 18 secondary and 54 tertiary ones. After statistical analyses of the important risk indicators selected which consisted of 6 preoperative evaluation ones and 18 postoperative evaluation ones, 6 preoperative and 12 postoperative predictive indicators were obtained. The values of risk priority number (RPN) were calculated for high, medium and low risks for postoperative incisional infection using a semi-quantitative method.n Conclusion:A self-designed system has been constructed for risk prediction and assessment of incisional infection after spinal surgery based on expert consultation and FMEA method.