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Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and a t/b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50～200a,are calculated.
Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas, through studying tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, deep structure, stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas, the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically. Using seismo -geological data, and the historical and modern seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and at / b, the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated. Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters, such as the maximum magnitude, occurrence probability, recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50 ~ 200a, are calculated.