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利用四川省盆地区玉米产量资料、生育期资料和相关气象资料,建立了适用于四川省盆地区玉米干旱风险评估的气候干旱风险模型、作物干旱风险模型、产量灾损风险模型、抗灾性能模型和相应的指标体系,并构建了四川省盆地区玉米旱灾综合风险评估模型,确定了综合风险区划指标.结果表明:四川省盆地区玉米各项风险评估指标具有明显的区域差异和一定的连片性;玉米旱灾综合风险评价指标,可将四川省盆地区玉米种植区划分为高、中、低3个风险区,其中,风险高值区主要集中在盆西北大部、盆中及盆南部分地区,风险中值区主要分布在盆北及盆南部分地区,风险低值区主要分布在盆东北、盆西南及盆东南部分地区.
Based on the data of maize yield, growth period and related meteorological data in Sichuan Basin, a drought risk model, a crop drought risk model, a yield disaster risk model, a disaster resistance model and a drought risk model for maize drought risk assessment in Sichuan Basin were established. The corresponding index system and the comprehensive risk assessment model of maize drought in Sichuan Basin were established and the index of comprehensive risk zoning was determined.The results showed that the risk assessment indexes of maize in Sichuan Basin had obvious regional differences and certain contiguity ; Corn drought comprehensive risk assessment index can be divided into high, medium and low risk areas in Sichuan basin corn planting area, of which, the high risk areas are mainly concentrated in most of the basin northwest, basin and some parts of the basin The risk-based value areas are mainly distributed in the basin north and parts of the basin. The areas with low risk are mainly located in northeastern basin, southwestern basin and parts of southeastern basin.