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本文选取去除了通货膨胀因素的2005-2011年十天内平均汽油定价(相对数)作为因变量,十天内平均迪拜原油现货价格、居民消费价格指数(本期数)、国内天然原油产量以及国内生产总值为因变量,试图主要通过误差修正模型对成品油调价机制内部的其他考虑因素进行分析。最后得出结论,认为中国成品油价虽然与国际油价有微弱的正相关关系,但与CPI、GDP等几乎无关。文章最后针对这一现象给出了一定的解释和建议。
In this paper, we choose the average gasoline price (relative number) in the ten days from 2005 to 2011 excluding inflation as the dependent variable, the average spot price of Dubai crude oil in ten days, the consumer price index (current issue), the domestic crude oil production and the domestic production The total value is the dependent variable, trying to analyze the other considerations within the oil price adjustment mechanism mainly through the error correction model. At last, we conclude that although the refined oil prices in China have a weak positive correlation with the international oil prices, they are almost irrelevant to the CPI and GDP. Finally, the article gives some explanations and suggestions on this phenomenon.