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【目的】青钱柳是集药用、材用和观赏价值于一身的多用途树种。通过应用贡献率、置换重要值比较以及Jackknife检验等综合分析方法,评价制约青钱柳现代地理分布的主要因子,可为青钱柳资源的科学保护和合理利用提供理论依据。【方法】基于183个青钱柳地理分布记录和8个气候环境因子数据,采用MaxEnt模型软件对青钱柳潜在适宜分布区进行预测,并在此基础上划分适宜栽培区。【结果】采用MaxEnt模型预测青钱柳潜在适宜分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.964±0.006。目前,青钱柳高度适宜分布区为浙江南部、福建西北部、安徽南部、湖北东部、江西东部和西部、湖南东部和西部、贵州东部、重庆东部、陕西南部和四川东北部;随着未来气温的升高,青钱柳有向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移的趋势。【结论】影响青钱柳分布的主要气候因子是温度,包括年均温、季节温度变异系数和平均日温差,其中年均温为最主要因子。
【Purpose】 Cyclocarya paliurus is a multi-purpose species that combines medicinal, material and ornamental values. Through the application of contribution rate, replacement of important value comparison and Jackknife test and other comprehensive analysis methods to evaluate the main factors restricting the modern geographical distribution of green money will provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection and rational utilization of resources. 【Method】 Based on the data of 183 geographical records of Cyclocarya paliurus and 8 climatic and environmental factors, the MaxEnt model software was used to predict the potential suitable distribution area of Cyclocandral, and based on this, the suitable cultivation area was divided. 【Result】 The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of Cyclocandralis paliurus. The area under the working characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.964 ± 0.006. At present, the most suitable distribution area for Qingyiliu is southern Zhejiang, northwestern Fujian, southern Anhui, eastern Hubei, eastern and western Jiangxi, eastern and western Hunan, eastern Guizhou, eastern Chongqing, southern Shaanxi and northeastern Sichuan; as the future temperature Of the rise, Qing Liu will have to migrate to higher latitudes and high altitudes. 【Conclusion】 The main climatic factors influencing the distribution of Cyclocarya paliurus are temperature, including annual average temperature, seasonal variation coefficient of temperature and average daily temperature difference, of which annual average temperature is the most important factor.