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拱坝是水利工程中的常见结构,因坝体材料的物理参数和作用于坝体的荷载均是随机变量,故坝体的应力和变形呈现出不确定性。因此,在拱坝设计和研究中,以概率统计理论为基础,对拱坝进行可靠度分析是科学、合理的。由于拱坝体量大,构造复杂,且基岩和筑坝材料具有非线性特性,使拱坝结构的可靠度分析十分困难。将可靠度计算的响应面法与拱坝应力分析的有限元法相结合,应用成熟的有限元分析软件,分析拱坝的可靠度。坝体应力与变形的计算采用三维非线性有限元法,可靠度计算采用二次响应面法。针对福建省永泰县大洋水电站拱坝的可靠度分析,得出了可靠指标的变化规律。与其他可靠度分析方法相比,该方法可以直接应用确定性的结构计算程序,使大型非线性结构的可靠度分析工作更加简便可行。
Arch dam is a common structure in water conservancy projects. Because of the physical parameters of dam material and loads acting on the dam are random variables, the stress and deformation of the dam body presents uncertainty. Therefore, in the design and research of arch dam, based on the theory of probability and statistics, it is scientific and reasonable to analyze the reliability of arch dam. Due to the large arch body, complex structure, and the non-linear characteristics of bedrock and dam materials, the reliability analysis of arch dam structure is very difficult. The reliability calculation of the response surface method and arch dam stress analysis of the finite element method combined with the application of sophisticated finite element analysis software to analyze the arch dam reliability. The three-dimensional nonlinear finite element method is used to calculate the stress and deformation of dam, and the second order response surface method is used to calculate the reliability. According to the reliability analysis of the arch dam of Dayang Hydropower Station in Yongtai County, Fujian Province, the change rule of reliable index is obtained. Compared with other reliability analysis methods, this method can directly use deterministic structural calculation program to make the reliability analysis of large-scale nonlinear structures more simple and feasible.