商务部部长陈德铭在刚刚结束的全国商务工作会上表示,预计全年社会消费品零售总额达21万亿元,增长14%左右,对经济增长贡献率有望从去年的51.6%提高至55%左右。商务部此前表示,2012年前三季度消费对经济增长贡献率自2006年以来首次超过投资。业内分析,在出口大幅下滑、投资增速放缓的情况下,2012年消费对经济增长的贡献率有望超过投资成为拉动经济增长的 Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said at the just concluded National Business Work Conference that the estimated total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 21 trillion yuan, an increase of 14% or so, and its contribution to economic growth is expected to rise to 55% from 51.6% last year. The Commerce Department said earlier that the contribution of consumption to economic growth in the first three quarters of 2012 surpassed the investment for the first time since 2006. Industry analysis, in the case of a sharp decline in exports and a slowdown in investment growth, the contribution of consumption to economic growth in 2012 is expected to exceed that of investment as a driver of economic growth