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新疆塔里木河干流是典型的干旱区内陆河,自身不产流,水资源全部依靠其源流补给,为纯耗散性河道.采用时间序列分析方法对塔里木河干流上游三源流(阿克苏河、叶尔羌河、和田河)的年径流量动态变化进行了分析,建立了源流区的耗水模型,对源流区来水及耗水的增加趋势给出了定量结果.分析了干流各测站年径流量的变化趋势,从而粗略推算了现状条件下各站发生间歇性断流的时段.建立了干流区耗水模型,分析了干流上、中游各段耗水特点,得出了各段耗水随干流来水减少而减少、因人类活动而增加的定量关系.
The main stream of Tarim River in Xinjiang is a typical arid inland river, which does not produce any flow of its own, and all the water resources are supplied by its source and supplied as purely dissipative river channel.Three time series analysis methods are used to analyze the three source streams (Aksu River and Yarkand River , And Hetian River), the water consumption model of the source area was established, and the quantitative results were obtained for the increasing trend of incoming water and water consumption in the source area.The annual runoff of each station in the main stream was analyzed The trend of intermittent flow in each station under the current conditions was roughly calculated.The water consumption model in the main stream area was established and the characteristics of water consumption in the upper and middle reaches of the main stream were analyzed.The results showed that Reduced water decreases and increases quantitative relationships due to human activity.