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目的 探讨气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响。方法 应用相关回归统计法和圆形分布法对资料进行研究。结果 菌痢的月平均发病百分构成比与相应年份月平均气温呈正相关(r=0.5099,P<0.01);辖区近10年的平均气温较前10年有所上升,尤其秋冬季与初春月平均气温升高了1℃左右,而菌痢发病高峰时点明显后移(F=11.49,P<0.01),流行高峰期也有后移倾向。结论 气温对菌痢的发病有直接影响,气温升高,菌痢的发病增加,年平均气温升高可导致菌痢的发病高峰时间后移。
Objective To investigate the effect of temperature on the incidence of bacterial dysentery. Methods The data were studied by using regression method and circular distribution method. Results The percentage composition of monthly average incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively correlated with the monthly mean temperature of the corresponding years (r = 0.5099, P <0.01). The average temperature of the area over the past 10 years was higher than that of the previous 10 years, especially autumn and winter and early spring The average temperature increased about 1 ℃, while the incidence of dysentery peaked significantly after the shift (F = 11.49, P <0.01), the peak of the epidemic also backward tendency. Conclusion The temperature has a direct impact on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The temperature rises and the incidence of bacillary dysentery increases. The annual average temperature increase can lead to the lapse of peak time of bacillary dysentery.