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大多数关于气候变化对水文过程影响评估的文献中,对大气模型中存在的显著的不确定性往往考虑不足.在很多重要的领域,GCM生成的长期预测很少能用于未来水资源规划与管理,因为其结果无法对变化趋势进行准确的描述,也就是对水文变量增加或减少趋势的预测缺乏可信度.一项借助于14个GCM模型以及不同发展情景(包括基准情景)开展的径流预报集合分析研究验证了这一点.GCM的输出情景作为水平衡模型的输入这种方法用于多瑙河上游未来水文变化的预测.如果将这种预测情景用于预测由气候变化引起的水文变化经济成本,更大的不确定性将会在经济数学模型中产生.著名的Stern“气候变化经济学”评论在水资源管理领域被广泛的应用.在经济学文献中对Stern评论的观点存在很多争议,很多专家对方法的使用和结论提出了一些质疑,本文的实例也证明了这一点.因此,进行气候变化对水文和水资源影响评估的学者们应该意识到不仅在GCM中存在很大的不确定性,大气-水文-经济模型的耦合过程可能会导致更大的不确定性.
Most of the literature on the impact of climate change on hydrological processes is often underemphasized for the significant uncertainties that exist in atmospheric models, and in many important areas, the long-term forecasts generated by GCM are seldom used in future water resource planning and Management because its results can not accurately characterize trends, that is, lack of confidence in predictions of increases or decreases in hydrological variables A runoff with the help of 14 GCM models and different development scenarios, including baseline scenarios This is validated by a predictive ensemble analysis study.GCM’s output scenario is used as an input to the water balance model This method is used for the prediction of future hydrological changes in the upper Danube.If this predictive scenario is used to predict the economic costs of hydrological changes due to climate change , Greater uncertainty will arise in the mathematical models of economics, and the famous Stern “climate change economics ” commentary is widely used in the field of water resources management. There are many views on Stern’s comment in the economics literature Controversy, many experts put forward some questions on the use of methods and conclusions, the examples of this paper also proved this point.Therefore, Scholars line of climate change on hydrology and water resources impact assessment should be aware not only of great uncertainty in GCM, the atmospheric - hydrological - economic model of the coupling process may lead to greater uncertainty.