Many high-quality forging productions require the large-sized hydraulic press machine(HPM) to have a desirable dynamic response. Since the forging process is complex under the low velocity, its response is difficult to estimate. And this often causes the desirable low-velocity forging condition difficult to obtain. So far little work has been found to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. In this paper, an approximate-model based estimation method is proposed to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. First, an approximate model is developed to represent the forging process of this complex HPM around the low-velocity working point. Under guaranteeing the modeling performance, the model may greatly ease the complexity of the subsequent estimation of the dynamic response because it has a good linear structure. On this basis, the dynamic response is estimated and the conditions for stability, vibration, and creep are derived according to the solution of the velocity. All these analytical results are further verified by both simulations and experiment. In the simulation verification for modeling, the original movement model and the derived approximate model always have the same dynamic responses with very small approximate error. The simulations and experiment finally demonstrate and test the effectiveness of the derived conditions for stability, vibration, and creep, and these conditions will benefit both the prediction of the dynamic response of the forging process and the design of the controller for the high-quality forging. The proposed method is an effective solution to achieve the desirable low-velocity forging condition. Many high-quality forging productions require the large-sized hydraulic press machine (HPM) to have a desirable dynamic response. Since the forging process is complex under the low velocity, its response is difficult to estimate. And this often causes the desirable low- So far little work has been found to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. In this paper, an approximate-model based estimation method is proposed to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under First, an approximate model is developed to represent the forging process of this complex HPM around the low-velocity working point. Under guaranteeing the modeling performance, the model may greatly ease the complexity of the subsequent estimation of the dynamic response because it has a good linear structure. On this basis, the dynamic response is estimated and the conditions for stability, vibration, and creep are deri All these analytical results are further verified by both simulations and experiments. In the simulation verification for modeling, the original movement model and the derived approximate model always have the same dynamic responses with very small approximate error. The simulations and experiments finally demonstrate and test the effectiveness of the derived conditions for stability, vibration, and creep, and these conditions will benefit both the prediction of the dynamic response of the forging process and the design of the controller for the high-quality forging The proposed method is an effective solution to achieve the desirable low-velocity forging condition.