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受国际金融危机带来的深层次影响,2012年世界经济增长持续低迷,欧债危机对世界经济的潜在威胁增大,世界经济的不确定性、不稳定性增加。2012年我国经济运行延续下行态势,并呈现出起伏较大、效益下滑、风险上升等特点,宏观调控面临极为复杂的局面。目前经济运行已呈触底企稳迹象,投资、消费、进出口都出现了积极的变化。但国际、国内支撑回升的力量仍然脆弱,经济总体走势以及经济各个领域的变化动向都不清楚,因此对当前我国宏观经济运行态势和未来走势进行监测和预警是政府、经济界和企业界普遍关注的问题。本组专题讨论是国家社会科学基金重大项目《“十二五”时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究》的阶段性研究成果。该课题组汇集了国内多个经济分析与监测机构的专家,他们从多个角度对2012年国内外宏观经济进行了动态监
Affected by the deep impact of the international financial crisis, the world economic growth continued to slump in 2012, the potential threat to the world economy from the European debt crisis has increased, and the uncertainty and instability of the world economy have increased. In 2012, the economic operation of our country continued its downward trend and showed the characteristics of great ups and downs, falling benefits and rising risks, and the macro-control was facing a very complicated situation. At present, the economic operation has shown signs of stabilizing. There have been some positive changes in investment, consumption, import and export. However, the strength of international and domestic support is still fragile. The overall economic trend and the changes in economic fields are not clear. Therefore, monitoring and early warning on the current macroeconomic situation and future trends in our country is a common concern of the government, the economic sector and the business community The problem. The symposium is a staged research result of the research on the dynamic monitoring and analysis of the macroeconomic operation during the 12th Five-Year Plan of the National Social Science Foundation. The group brought together experts from a number of domestic economic analysis and monitoring agencies who conducted dynamic monitoring of the macroeconomic at home and abroad in 2012 from various perspectives