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考虑目前缺少评估日变路网性能的可靠性指标及其计算方法,根据可靠性理论中的随机失效序列分析,定义了基于首次失效时间的动态可靠性指标.该指标定义为日变路网性能维持在可靠水平的持续天数等于指定天数的概率,描述的是路网不间断地提供可靠服务的能力.随后采用近似方法估计该指标,并基于蒙特卡罗模拟设计了相应的算法.最后通过一个测试网络表明了动态可靠性指标及其计算方法的可用性.
Considering the current lack of reliability index and its calculation method to evaluate the performance of daily variable network, the dynamic reliability index based on the first failure time is defined according to the random failure sequence analysis in reliability theory.The index is defined as the performance of daily variable network The number of sustained days at a reliable level is equal to the probability of a given number of days, which describes the ability of the road network to provide reliable service uninterruptedly.Then the approximate method is used to estimate the index and the corresponding algorithm is designed based on Monte Carlo simulation.At last, The test network shows the availability of dynamic reliability metrics and their calculation methods.