为对一次地震中可能造成的地表断裂位错作出较准确的估计,采用拟静力弹塑性有限元方法,分别对覆盖土层为粉质黏土和黏土情况下,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂进行了数值模拟分析。根据历史震害数据回归拟合的震级M与基岩位错D基岩的关系式以及数值计算结果,建立了震级M与地表位错D地表的关系式。公式中考虑了土层厚度H对地表位错D地表的影响,而不仅仅局限于根据震级M的大小通过统计公式来估算地表断裂位错D地表。结果表明,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂位错不仅与震级的大小有关,还与土层厚度和土层性质有关;在相同震级作用下,随着土层厚度的增加,地表位错逐渐减小;在相同震级和相同土层厚度下,上覆土层为粉质黏土时产生的地表位错要大于上覆土层为黏土时产生的地表位错;根据拟合的公式估计出不同震级情况下可不考虑走滑断层影响的临界覆盖土层厚度值,有助于提高活动断裂地震危险性评估工作的可靠性。 In order to make a more accurate estimation of possible surface rupture dislocations during an earthquake, the quasi-static elasto-plastic finite element method was used to simulate the surface rupture caused by strike-slip faults under the condition that the covering soil is silty clay and clay, respectively Numerical simulation was carried out. According to the relationship between the earthquake magnitude M and the bedrock dislocation D bedrock of the historical earthquake damage data and the numerical calculation results, the relationship between the magnitude M and the earth surface dislocation D is established. The formula considers the effect of soil thickness H on the surface of surface dislocation D. Instead of using the statistical formula to estimate the surface rupture dislocation D based on the magnitude M, The results show that the surface rupture dislocation caused by strike-slip faults is not only related to the magnitude of the earthquake magnitude but also related to the thickness of the soil layer and the nature of the soil layer. With the increase of the thickness of the soil layer, the surface dislocation gradually decreases The surface dislocations produced when the overlying soil is silty clay are greater than the earth surface dislocations produced when the overlying soil is made of clay under the same magnitude and the same soil layer thickness. According to the fitting formula, different earthquakes are estimated Without considering the thickness of the critical covering soil layer influenced by the strike-slip fault, it is helpful to improve the reliability of the seismic risk assessment of the active fault.