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海洋渔业是我国传统的海洋产业,在我国的海洋经济和国民经济中占有重要地位,其发展拓宽了传统农业的范围。然而随着国家重大发展战略的实施,各类项目用海需求迅猛增长,大量的海域、滩涂被填被占,传统的养殖区域受到挤压,渔民“失海”现象日益突出。本文以掌握的我国海水养殖区及养殖用海现状资料为基础,以不同的数学模型为分析方法,开展至2020年我国海水养殖供需预测,并根据预测结果确定海水养殖功能区面积保有量指标,为科学规划海水养殖功能区、确定2020年海水养殖等基本渔业用海目标提供依据。
Marine fishery is China’s traditional marine industry, which occupies an important position in China’s marine economy and national economy. Its development has broadened the scope of traditional agriculture. However, with the implementation of the major national development strategy, the demand for various kinds of projects in the sea has increased rapidly. As a result, a large number of sea areas and tidal flats have been filled and the traditional farming areas have been squeezed. As a result, fishermen have become increasingly “sea losers”. Based on the data of marine aquaculture area and the current state of aquaculture in our country, the paper predicts the supply and demand of mariculture in China by 2020 with different mathematic models as the analytical method, and according to the forecast result, To provide a basis for scientific planning of mariculture functional areas and determination of sea targets for mariculture and other basic fisheries by 2020.