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该文依据平滑预测法构建了五阶供应链模型,利用witness软件进行仿真实验,比较信息共享前后供应链上各级成员的订单及库存变化。作者首次运用实验证明,在订货提前期一定,需求预测方法、安全库存不变的情况下,信息共享能有效弱化牛鞭效应,并使库存更加平稳,降低库存成本。同时该文比较详细地介绍了witness建模的详细设计,为其他同行建模提供参考。
Based on the smoothing forecasting method, this paper constructs the fifth-order supply chain model, uses witness software to simulate the experiment, and compares the orders and stock changes of the members at all levels before and after the information sharing. The author first used experiments to prove that information sharing can effectively weaken the bullwhip effect and make the inventory more stable and reduce the inventory cost under the condition of certain lead time, demand forecasting method and safety stock. At the same time, this paper introduces the detailed design of witness modeling in detail, providing reference for other peers modeling.