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2012年南美、美国大豆产区先后遭遇罕见旱情,大豆作物出现大幅减产,推动国际大豆价格大幅上涨;同时,主权债务危机主导的宏观形势变化以及美联储主导的货币政策(预期)变化,继续对包括大豆在内的国际大宗商品价格带来影响。2013年,南美大豆播种面积将在种植效益提升的刺激下大幅扩大,全球大豆有望恢复性增产,大豆需求预期保持平稳增长;年度结余量将由负转正,意味着基本面对大豆价格的影响将减弱,并由偏多转向中性甚至偏空。同时,宏观面将面临更复杂形势,并可能进一步激化,其对大宗商品市场的影响预计偏空,加上技术面因素作用,2013年大豆价格整体看跌。
In South America and the United States in 2012, soybean production in the United States suffered a series of severe drought successively with a sharp reduction in output of soybean crops and a sharp rise in international soybean prices. At the same time, the macroeconomic situation led by the sovereign debt crisis and the expected (under the change of the Fed’s monetary policy) Soybean, including international commodity prices have an impact. Soybean sown area in South America will be substantially boosted by increased planting efficiency in 2013, global soybean production is expected to resume and soybean demand is expected to maintain steady growth. The annual balance will turn negative from positive, which means the impact of the fundamentals on soybean prices will be weakened , And by turning more neutral or even bearish. Meanwhile, macroeconomic outlook will face more complicated situation and may further intensify. Its impact on commodity markets is expected to be bearish. In addition to technical factors, the overall soybean price in 2013 will be bearish.