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新常态下房地产业发展与经济增长的关系出现了较大变化,利用GMM方法和VAR模型,对我国新分三类城市间房地产业、非房地产业与经济增长的相互关系进行研究.研究结果表明:第一,GMM模型指出新分一、二、三类城市对经济增长影响最大的因素分别为房地产需求、非房地产业和房地产行业;第二,脉冲响应分析表明对新分一、二、三类城市房地产需求、非房地产业发展和房地产发展最大的影响因素分别为非房地产行业和房地产需求.最后,根据研究结果,提出促进我国新分三类地区房地产业健康稳定协调发展的相关政策建议.
Under the new normal, the relationship between real estate development and economic growth has undergone great changes. The relationship between real estate, non-real estate and economic growth in China’s newly divided three types of cities has been studied by means of GMM and VAR models. : First, the GMM model points out that the factors that have the greatest impact on economic growth in the new sub-categories 1, 2 and 3 are real estate demand, non-real estate and real estate sectors respectively. Second, the impulse response analysis shows that for the new sub-sub-regions I, II and III According to the research results, some policy suggestions to promote the healthy, stable and coordinated development of the real estate industry in the new sub-regions of China are put forward.