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流动人口积分制管理作为户籍改革过程中重要的过渡性政策,从2007年到2016年在全国大面积推广的过程为研究社会政策创新扩散提供了良好案例。本研究旨在构建社会政策创新扩散影响因素的整合性框架,主要聚焦于社会政策的特殊政策属性对这一过程的影响,运用事件史分析法(EHA)对354个行政级别在地级以上的城市2006—2016年的观测数据进行了检验和分析,探讨了各类因素对城市政府采纳社会政策的影响机理,阐明了研究结果的政策意涵和现实启示。主要结论有:(1)在城市内部因素方面,政府资源与能力和信访压力对社会政策创新扩散具有重要影响,而解决实际问题的治理需求影响效果不显著;(2)在外部制度因素方面,上级政府的行政压力对社会政策创新扩散具有重要影响,而城市竞争的影响效果不显著;(3)社会政策的创新扩散是多种机制混合作用的结果,与经济政策的扩散过程存在显著差别,行政指令和社会建构两种机制在其中起着主导作用。这些结论有利于拓展政策扩散与政策过程的相关理论,对经济政策和社会政策的扩散机制进行比较;也有利于完善非户籍人口管理的相关制度安排,渐进式地推动我国户籍制度改革。
As an important transitional policy in the process of household registration reform, the management of floating population points in large-scale popularization across the country from 2007 to 2016 provided a good case study for the diffusion of social policy innovation. The purpose of this study is to construct an integrated framework of the influencing factors of social policy innovation diffusion, which mainly focuses on the influence of special policy attributes of social policy on this process. Using the event history analysis (EHA) method, 354 administrative levels above ground level The urban observational data from 2006 to 2016 were tested and analyzed, and the influence mechanism of various factors on the adoption of social policies by urban government was discussed. The policy implications and practical implications of the research results were clarified. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In terms of internal factors of the city, the government resources and ability and the pressure of letters and visits have an important influence on the innovation and diffusion of social policies, while the effect of governance needs to solve practical problems is insignificant; (2) On the external institutional factors, (3) The innovation and diffusion of social policy is the result of the mixed action of many kinds of mechanisms and there is a significant difference with the diffusion of economic policy, Administrative instructions and social construction in which the two mechanisms play a leading role. These conclusions are conducive to expanding the relevant theories of policy diffusion and policy process, comparing the diffusion mechanism of economic policy and social policy, improving the relative institutional arrangement of non-household population management and gradually promoting the reform of household registration system in our country.