从前面的分析中可以看出,2002年的世界经济形势可能会有所好转,但幅度不会很大,而且这种好转最早也应在2002年的下半年出现。由于世界经济的变动对中国外贸出口的影响约有半年左右的滞后期,因此世界经济的弱势回暖通过各种途径影响到中国时,可能已是2002年的岁末。如此看来,2002年,特别是上半年中国外贸出口形势仍不容乐观。 As can be seen from the preceding analysis, the world economic situation in 2002 is likely to have some improvement but the magnitude will not be very large. This improvement should first appear in the second half of 2002. As the impact of changes in the world economy on China’s exports has a lag of about six months, the weakness of the world economy may have reached the end of 2002 by various channels when it affects China. In view of this, the situation of China’s foreign trade export in 2002, especially in the first half of the year, is still not optimistic.