Product variation reduction is critical to improve process efficiency and product quality, especially for multistage machining process (MMP). However, due to the variation accumulation and propagation, it becomes quite difficult to predict and reduce product variation for MMP. While the method of statistical process control can be used to control product quality, it is used mainly to monitor the process change rather than to analyze the cause of product variation. In this paper, based on a differential description of the contact kinematics of locators and part surfaces, and the geometric constraints equation defined by the locating scheme, an improved analytical variation propagation model for MMP is presented. In which the influence of both locator position and machining error on part quality is considered while, in traditional model, it usually focuses on datum error and fixture error. Coordinate transformation theory is used to reflect the generation and transmission laws of error in the establishment of the model. The concept of deviation matrix is heavily applied to establish an explicit mapping between the geometric deviation of part and the process error sources. In each machining stage, the part deviation is formulized as three separated components corresponding to three different kinds of error sources, which can be further applied to fault identification and design optimization for complicated machining process. An example part for MMP is given out to validate the effectiveness of the methodology. The experiment results show that the model prediction and the actual measurement match well. This paper provides a method to predict part deviation under the influence of fixture error, datum error and machining error, and it enriches the way of quality prediction for MMP.