自今年7月下旬以来,在国内、国际粮油市场持续低迷时,豆粕市场却率先启动,走出一波强劲上扬行情,受其影响,大豆市场价格也有一定幅度的涨升,令市场人士为之一震。 豆粕价格在短时间内大幅扬升的主要原因是市场供求关系发生了变化,受到国内、国际两个市场因素的影响所致。 从国内情况看:首先,自年初以来,国内粮食市场价格继续沿着上年的惯性下挫,粮食市场低迷不振,有关地方出台的一些粮食促销政策也没有给粮食市场带来生机和活力。生猪饲养业亏损严重,极大地挫伤了饲养者的积极性,致使畜禽存栏量下降,对玉米、豆粕等饲料原料需求减少。在我国,大豆作为四大主要粮食品种之一,并没有对其制定保护性收购价格,再加上受大量进口的冲击,大豆市场价格不断走低,形成豆贱伤农、库存积压的局面。由于大豆及其加工制品市场价格的技术低迷,企业加工大豆即发生亏损。因此,大豆加工企业普遍开工不足,停产、半停产的居多,豆粕产出量相应减少。其次是我国农产品进口格局发生了一些变化,如大豆进口量继续稳步增长,而豆粕的进口量却大幅度下降。 Since late July this year, when the domestic and international grain and oil markets have been in a downturn, the soybean meal market took the lead in launching a strong wave of gains. Affected by this, the soybean market prices have also risen to some extent, making the market one of them shock. Soybean meal prices rose sharply in a short period of time the main reason is the market supply and demand has changed, subject to domestic and international market factors. First, since the beginning of the year, the domestic grain market prices have continued to fall along the inertia of the previous year. The food market downturn is sluggish. Some food promotion policies promulgated by relevant local governments have not brought vitality and vitality to the grain market. The loss of the pig breeding industry is serious, greatly dampen the enthusiasm of the breeders, resulting in a drop in the stock of livestock and poultry and a reduction in the demand for feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal. In our country, soybean, as one of the four major grain varieties, has not made a protective purchase price for it. In addition, due to the impact of massive imports, the soybean market prices have been declining continuously, resulting in the situation that the prices of soybeans are low and the inventory is overstocked. Due to the technical downturn in the market price of soybeans and their processed products, the loss of processed soybeans has been incurred. Therefore, the soybean processing enterprises generally started insufficient, discontinued, most of the semi-stop production, a corresponding reduction in output of soybean meal. Second, some changes have taken place in the import pattern of China’s agricultural products. For example, the import volume of soybean continues to grow steadily while the import volume of soybean meal has dropped drastically.