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泥石流灾害破坏力巨大,预测预报泥石流发生的可能性是防灾减灾的重要手段,也是国内外学者研究的热点。基于功效系数法原理,在综合分析泥石流灾害发生的气象、地质环境影响因素的基础上,选取了山坡坡度、相对高差、植被覆盖率、沿沟松散物储量、5 d累计降雨量、最大小时雨强和当日雨量为评价因子,采用改进后的层次分析法计算评价因子的权重系数,建立了泥石流预测预警模型。以岫岩地区泥石流为例对预警模型进行检验,预测结果较好地反映了实际情况。表明基于功效系数法的泥石流预测预警模型具备较高的可靠性和实用性,研究结果为泥石流预测预警提供了一种新的思路和方法。
The destructive power of debris flow disaster is huge, and the possibility of predicting the occurrence of debris flow is an important means of disaster prevention and reduction. It is also a hot spot for scholars at home and abroad. Based on the principle of efficiency coefficient method, based on comprehensive analysis of the meteorological and geological environment influencing factors of debris flow disasters, this paper selected the slope gradient, relative height difference, vegetation coverage, loose material reserves along the channel, cumulative rainfall of 5 d, maximum hour Rain intensity and rainfall on the same day as evaluation factors, the AHP was used to calculate the weight coefficient of evaluation factors, and a debris flow forecasting and warning model was established. Taking the Xiuyan debris flow as an example, the early-warning model is tested, and the prediction result better reflects the actual situation. It shows that the debris flow forecasting and forecasting model based on the efficiency coefficient method has high reliability and practicability. The research results provide a new idea and method for debris flow forecast and early warning.