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为了探讨灾害的风险传递规律及其风险传递的阻断措施,基于系统理论和信息论的原理,将灾害应急管理体系视为一个复杂的系统,讨论灾害风险传递系统中要素的关联性和信息感知的非线性特性可能产生风险的传递性。结果表明,风险的传递性主要存在于信息缺乏和应急知识的不成熟的灾害应急网络体系中,并且可以将风险传递结构关系分成关系型、层次型、树形和网状型4种类型。最后,利用信息熵的方法表述信息在传递中的损失,指出风险沟通可以阻断风险传递链。
In order to explore the law of risk transmission and the blocking measures of risk transmission, based on the theory of system theory and information theory, disaster emergency management system is regarded as a complicated system to discuss the relevance and information perception of elements in disaster risk transmission system Non-linear characteristics may have the risk of transitivity. The results show that the transitivity of risk mainly exists in the immature disaster emergency network system with lack of information and emergency knowledge, and the risk transfer structure can be divided into four types: relational, hierarchical, tree and reticular. Finally, the method of information entropy is used to describe the loss of information in transmission, and it is pointed out that risk communication can block the chain of risk transmission.