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文章认为 ,历史发展不是脱离人的选择而自动发生的过程 ,历史发展是多种因素共同作用的结果 ,历史人物及其选择的差异、历史偶然性因素之配合不同 ,历史事件的路向就会发生变化。因此 ,在历史研究中 ,历史假设可以作为一种历史研究方法 ,通过对各种历史条件的再认识 ,弥补实证方法、抽象思维方法的不足 ,破除历史宿命论的藩篱。历史假设还可以增强历史的批判意识 ,有利于人们以史为鉴警醒自己
The article argues that historical development is not a process that takes place automatically from human choices. Historical development is the result of a combination of many factors. The differences between historical figures and their choices, and the coordination of historical contingencies, will change the course of historical events . Therefore, in historical research, historical hypotheses can be used as a method of historical research to eliminate the barriers of historical fatalism by re-understanding various historical conditions, making up for the deficiency of empirical methods and abstract thinking methods. Historical hypotheses can also enhance the critical awareness of history and help people to wake themselves up from history