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预测是对未来(近期或远期)疾病流行的推断过程。凡与人类健康和生活关系重大的问题都可以进行预测,这是一项较主动的工作。近年来,随着传染病预防工作逐步深化、主动化和高效率化。预测工作在进一步提高预防工作的质量方面有重要意义。 1966年,我国曾出现流脑暴发流行,疫势之猛,发病率之高都是史无前例的。人们渴望能够进行预测。近年来,国内在传染病预测方面作了不少工作,积累了宝贵经验。但总的说来,整个预测工作,无论在理论上或实践上都未成熟,仍处于探索阶段,需要进一步加以研究。
Prediction is the process of inferring the future (near or long-term) disease epidemic. It is a more active task to make predictions on issues of major importance to human health and life. In recent years, with the gradual deepening of prevention of infectious diseases, active and efficient. Forecasting work is of great importance in further improving the quality of prevention efforts. In 1966, an epidemic of meningitis was reported in our country. The epidemic was fierce and the incidence rate was unprecedented. People are eager to make predictions. In recent years, China has done a lot of work in forecasting infectious diseases and has accumulated valuable experience. However, on the whole, the entire forecasting work, whether in theory or in practice, is still under exploration and needs to be further studied.