The Evolutionary Modeling and Short-range Climatic Prediction for Meteorological Element Time Series

来源 :气象学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:woshiliuning
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
The time series of precipitation in flood season (May-September) at Wuhan Station, which is set as an example of the kind of time series with chaos characters, is split into two parts: One includes macro climatic timescale period waves that are affected by some relatively steady climatic factors such as astronomical factors (sunspot, etc.), some other known and/or unknown factors, and the other includes micro climatic timescale period waves superimposed on the macro one. The evolutionary modeling (EM), which develops from genetic programming (GP), is supposed to be adept at simulating the former part because it creates the nonlinear ordinary differential equation (NODE) based upon the data series. The natural fractals (NF)are used to simulate the latter part. The final prediction is the sum of results from both methods, thus the model can reflect multi-time scale effects of forcing factors in the climate system. The results of this example for 2002 and 2003 are satisfactory for climatic prediction operation. The NODE can suggest that the data vary with time, which is beneficial to think over short-range climatic analysis and prediction. Comparison in principle between evolutionary modeling and linear modeling indicates that the evolutionary one is a better way to simulate the complex time series with nonlinear characteristics.
其他文献
高速公路各类交通事故的调查分析表明,产生交通事故的原因主要由人、车辆、道路、交通环境、管理等几个部分组成.其中人是交通事故发生的最主要的因素,而交通环境、道路因素
Traditionally gully erosion has been identified with the dissection of the landscape in agricultural settings but it is also recognized as a prevalent erosion f
CRTS-II型无砟轨道板预制是我国在德国博格板技术的基础上,经过引进、消化、吸收、再创新形成的具有我国特色的、世界领先水平的轨道板施工生产工艺.其施工具有精度要求高、"
A novel powder metallurgy (P/M) material with high wear resistance is developed in order to decrease the wear and lubricant-leakage of a diesel engine valve gui
The ionospheric currents in the polar region are caused mainly by field-aligned currents. The quiet polar current system consists of a pair of current vertices
面对中级会计资格考试《财务管理》,考生必须全面理解教材,分析考试特点,掌握应试技巧,加强应试训练,以成功应对考试。 The face of mid-level accounting qualification ex
A possible reason for the unreasonable simulation of maximum rainfall location, intensity and seasonal evolution over eastern China in CCM3 has been investigate
A stack of records becomes one of the main steps in modern seismic data processing. In the stack procedure, the crucial operation is time correction. Convention
In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is fam
运用文献计量学方法,通过对中文核心期刊——《自然科学进展》十多年来所发表论文的引用文献(包括引文的数量、类型、语种、引文自引量)的定量分析,探讨我国自然科学研究文献