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1998年以来,在政府扩大内需的积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策的推动下,我国宏观经济已走出低谷,稳步回升。但进入2000年下半年,经济增长速度有所回落,这种回落是否是暂时性的,持续时间将有多长,下一步我国经济发展趋势如何,是当前政府及经济学界最为关注的问题。吉林大学宏观经济分析预测课题组结合主周期(Major Cycle)理论,使用多种预测模型及“宏观经济监测预警系统”,对2001年我国宏观经济形势进行了分析和预测。
Since 1998, driven by the proactive fiscal policy of expanding domestic demand by the government and the steady monetary policy, China’s macroeconomy has bottomed out and has steadily risen. However, in the second half of 2000, the rate of economic growth has dropped somewhat. Whether this decline is temporary and the duration will be long or not will lead to the next trend in China’s economic development. This is the issue most concerned by the current government and economic circles. The macroeconomic analysis and forecasting team of Jilin University, combined with the theory of Major Cycle, used various forecast models and the Macroeconomic Monitoring and Early Warning System to analyze and forecast the macroeconomic situation in China in 2001.