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据茌平县１１年历史资料，以小麦丛矮病发生程度为预报量ｙ、上年秋播前灰飞虱密度为ｘ１、灰飞虱带毒率为ｘ２、初春麦田灰飞虱密度为ｘ３、上年１１月上中旬平均气温为ｘ４四个预报因子，应用模糊多因子综合评判法建立了小麦丛矮病的预测模式ｙ～＝ｘ～Ｒ～，经１９９５～１９９６年应用，预报结果与实际发生程度完全吻合，对１１年历史资料应用该模式进行回测，历史符合率为９０．９１％＊＊。
According to the 11-year historical data of Jiping County, the occurrence of wheat clumpy dwarf disease is forecast amount y, the density of x-hattexes was x1 before autumn sowing, x2 was carried by the brown planthopper, the density of the brown planthopper was x3 in early spring, The average temperature in mid-November last year was x4 four predictors, the fuzzy multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method was used to establish the prediction model of wheat dwarf disease y ~ = x ~ R ~, and its application was from 1995 to 1996. The forecast results were compared with the actual The degree of occurrence is completely consistent with the application of this mode to the historical data of 11 years for back testing. The historical coincidence rate is 90.91% **.