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我们早期的文章表明,VAN 方法并非不符合 Jackson(1996)提出的必要条件(1)和(2)。对评估成功而言,非主观的事后决定也是需要的,这是因为,绝大多数 VAN 预报,其ΔM、Δr 以及Δt 值都是在被讨论的1987～1989年时段以前发表的,只有在极少数与地震电信号地电活动新现象的观测有关的情况下(29次中的3次),Δt 值才是在1988年确定的。此外,一次仔细的审验——从物理观点看——表明,VAN 方法确实满足 Jackson 的3个有理判据(被候选预报技术所遵从)。
Our earlier articles show that the VAN method is not inconsistent with the necessary conditions (1) and (2) proposed by Jackson (1996). Non-subjective, ex post facto decisions are also needed for the success of the assessment because the vast majority of VAN forecasts have their ΔM, Δr, and Δt values published before the period 1987 to 1989 under discussion, In a few cases (3 out of 29) related to observations of a new phenomenon of geoelectric activity of seismic signals, the Δt value was established in 1988. In addition, a careful examination - from a physical point of view - shows that the VAN method does exactly what Jackson’s three rational criteria (which are obeyed by candidate forecasting techniques).