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新型农村社会养老保险制度的建立是我国统筹城乡社会保障发展史上的里程碑。新农保合意替代率是指新农保的平均待遇与农民人均纯收入的合意比值,是制度有效性评价的关键指标。本文利用新农保合意替代率模型实证分析出1990-2009年我国农村社会养老保险的合意替代率水平,并预测出2011-2030年新农保合意替代率区间。
The establishment of a new type of rural social endowment insurance system is a milestone in the history of the coordinated development of social security in urban and rural areas in China. The satisfactory replacement rate of new rural insurance means the desirable ratio of the average treatment of new rural social security and the per capita net income of farmers, which is the key indicator for evaluating the effectiveness of the system. In this paper, we use the new model of the expected replacement rate of new rural insurance to empirically analyze the expected replacement rate of rural social pension insurance in China from 1990 to 2009 and predict the expected replacement rate of new rural insurance in 2011-2030.