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目的 优选研究平均发展速度的计算方法。方法 以湖北省1988年～1995年伤寒及副伤寒发病率为例,用GM(1,1)灰色数列模型法和其它4种方法分别计算平均发展速度,比较拟合优度。结果 伤寒发病率平均下降速度为11.97％,相关指数R~2=0.994 8,经F检验,极显著地优于其它4种计算方法。结论 灰色数列模型法用于研究平均发展速度,具有计算简单、结果直观和准确度高等优点,值得推广应用。
Objective To study the calculation method of the average development speed. Methods The incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in Hubei Province from 1988 to 1995 was used as an example. The average development rate was calculated using the GM(1,1) grey series model and the other four methods, and the goodness of fit was compared. Results The average rate of decline of typhoid fever was 11.97%, and the correlation index was R~2=0.994 8. After the F test, it was significantly better than the other four methods. Conclusion The grey sequence model method is used to study the average development speed. It has the advantages of simple calculation, intuitive results and high accuracy. It is worthy of popularization and application.