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2012/13年度全球棉花面积、产量均同比下降,消费缓慢回升,但仍延续供过于求的格局,库存量持续增加,库存消费比处于历史高点。受中国收储政策影响,棉花贸易量同比减少,棉花价格相对平稳。国际棉价较低对中国棉花生产、进口造成较大影响。未来国际棉花仍将呈现供过于求的格局,产量下降、消费略增、库存持续增加,国际棉价将呈弱势震荡格局。
Global cotton production in 2012/13 was down YoY while consumption picked up slowly, but the pattern of oversupply continued. Inventories continued to increase, and the stock-consumption ratio was at an all-time high. Affected by China’s purchasing and purchasing policy, the cotton trade volume decreased year on year and the cotton price was relatively stable. The low international cotton price has a great impact on China’s cotton production and imports. In the future, international cotton will still show the pattern of oversupply, output will drop, consumption will increase slightly, inventory will continue to increase, and the international cotton price will show a weak shock pattern.