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基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾对普洱地震区未来震情进行前瞻性预测分析,给出了该地震区强震震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将上述预测结果与2014年10月7日云南景谷MS6.6级地震参数进行比较,表明:四要素预测值与实际值相差不大,对普洱地震区的前瞻性中期预测结果可信.研究表明:2007年普洱ML6.4级震群事件是2014年景谷MS6.6级地震的直接导火索,2014年云南景谷MS6.6级地震并非主震事件,该地震区未来还将发生MS6.4~6.8级地震.预计在向临界状态演化过程中,该地震区还将发生不超过MS6.0级的preshock事件.
Based on the authors’ theory and prediction method of the brittle fracture in the seismogenic fault multi-lock block, the authors have prospectively predicted and analyzed the earthquake sentiment in the Pu’er earthquake region. The magnitude of the strong earthquake, the latitude and longitude of the epicenter, the focal depth, The results of the above four predictors of the critical Benioff strain are compared with those of the MS6.6 Yunnan Jingu MS7.6 earthquake on October 7, 2014. The results show that there is not much difference between the predicted value of the four factors and the actual value, and the prediction of the Pu’er earthquake region The results of the mid-term prediction are credible.The research shows that the 2007 Pu’er ML6.4 earthquake swarm event is the direct fuse of the 2014 Jingu MS6.6 earthquake. In 2014, the Yunnan MSG MS6.6 earthquake was not the main shock event. In the future, MS6.4 ~ 6.8 earthquakes will occur in the earthquake area, and preshock events up to MS6.0 level are expected to occur during the evolution to the critical state.