论文部分内容阅读
神经管畸形是发生于中枢神经系统的一种先天性异常,在所有的新生儿出生缺陷中所占比例较高。在我国,作为矿业大省的山西,神经管畸形最为严重,原平市又是山西省出生缺陷的高发市之一。本文利用山西省原平市2007-2012年的神经管畸形病例资料,基于贝叶斯理论的时空建模方法,综合考虑时间组分和时空交互组分,对神经管畸形的时空规律进行研究。研究识别了研究区内疾病发生的热点区域、冷点区域、温点区域,并对这些区域随时间的变化趋势进行了分析。研究发现,原平市18个乡镇中有1个热点区域、17个温点区域,整体发病率较高;原平市神经管畸形整体上随时间变化呈缓慢下降趋势,但该趋势并不明显;1个热点区域疾病风险下降趋势慢于整体趋势,4个温点区域疾病风险下降趋势快于整体趋势,13个温点区域疾病风险时间变化趋势与整体趋势趋同。本文识别了山西省原平市神经管畸形发病的时间趋势和空间趋势,可以揭示神经管畸形潜在的风险因子或控制措施供进一步流行病学研究,也可以为公共卫生部门制定及时有效的防治控制措施提供一定的科学参考。
Neural tube deformity is a congenital abnormality that occurs in the central nervous system and accounts for a high proportion of all neonatal birth defects. In our country, as a big mining province in Shanxi, neural tube deformity is the most serious, and Yuanping City is one of the high incidence of birth defects in Shanxi Province. Based on the data of the cases of neural tube defects from 2007 to 2012 in Yuanping City, Shanxi Province, and based on the Bayesian theory of spatio-temporal modeling method, the spatio-temporal rules of neural tube defects are studied by considering the time components and spatio-temporal interaction components. The study identified hot spots, cold spots and warm spots in the study area, and analyzed the trend of these areas with time. The study found that there were 1 hotspot and 17 warm spots in 18 villages and towns in Yuanping City, with a relatively high overall incidence. The neural tube defects in Yuanping City showed a gradual downward trend with time, but the trend was not obvious. The disease risk in a hot area decreased more slowly than the overall trend, and the disease risk in the four warm spots dropped faster than the overall trend. The trends of disease risk in the 13 warm spots were similar to the overall trends. This paper identifies the time trend and spatial trend of the incidence of neural tube defects in Yuanping City of Shanxi Province, and can reveal the potential risk factors or control measures of neural tube defects for further epidemiological studies, and make timely and effective prevention and control measures for public health departments Provide a certain degree of scientific reference