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一、基-普经济周期 模型的产生及其扩展 新古典宏观经济学的主要代表人物卢卡斯把经济波动的根源归结为货币因素,认为货币供给的冲击即货币存量的随机变动会引起经济波动。为什么货币供给的冲击会引起经济波动呢?经济当事人不能获得准确的信息,所以不能准确地判断价格变化的实际情况,从而导致产出量和就业量的波动。这样的解释显然缺乏足够的说服力,因为它与理性预期假设本身是相矛盾的。按照理性预期假设,经济当事人不可能重复犯同样的错误,更何况在西方国家,货币供给量和价格指数一般是定期公布的,公众通过电视、广播、报纸等新闻媒介可以迅速得到每月、甚至每周的有关信息。
First, the generation of the base-general economic cycle model and its expansion Neoclassical macroeconomics, the main representative Lucas put the root cause of economic fluctuations attributed to monetary factors, that the impact of money supply that the random changes in the stock of money will cause economic fluctuations . Why the impact of money supply will cause economic fluctuations? Economic parties can not get accurate information, it can not accurately determine the actual situation of price changes, leading to fluctuations in output and employment. Clearly, such explanations lack sufficient persuasion because they contradict the rational expectation hypothesis itself. According to the rational expectation hypothesis, the economic parties can not repeat the same mistakes. Moreover, in the western countries, the money supply and price index are generally announced on a regular basis. The public can quickly obtain monthly, even through the media such as television, radio, newspapers and even Weekly information.