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【目的/意义】新兴媒介生产的媒体奇观表现出一系列新的特征,且对社会有着更深刻的影响。针对目前媒体奇观只有定性理论研究的现状,提出了定量预测媒体奇观舆情热度发展趋势的方法。【方法/过程】首先引入层次分析法构建基于微博的媒体奇观舆情热度描述指标体系。之后在查阅大量文献的基础上,改进马尔可夫链模型,通过划分更精化的状态区间、构建状态转移矩阵、预测舆情热度趋势的步骤,以“庆安枪击案”的微博数据为实证案例进行实验。【结果/结论】结果表明,层次分析法构建舆情热度指标体系和马尔科夫链模型应用于媒体奇观舆情热度趋势预测都具有较高的可行性和准确性,进而为政府、企业和研究人员分析媒体奇观的舆情发展脉络提供新的思路和方法。
[Purpose / Significance] The wonders of the media in emerging media show a series of new features that have a profound impact on society. In view of the current situation of the spectacle of the media, only qualitative research has been put forward, and a quantitative method of predicting the development trend of the wonders of the public opinion is proposed. [Method / Process] First, the introduction of analytic hierarchy process to build a microblogging media spectacle public opinion heat description index system. After that, on the basis of consulting a large number of documents, this paper improves the Markov chain model, through the steps of dividing the more refined state interval, constructing the state transition matrix and forecasting the trend of public opinion heat. Based on the Weibo data of “Qingan Shooting” Experiment for positive cases. [Results / Conclusion] The results show that the analytic hierarchy process builds the public opinion heat index system and the Markov chain model is applied to the media spectacle public opinion hot trend forecast has the high feasibility and accuracy, and then for the government, the enterprise and the researcher analyzes Media Wonders of the development of public opinion to provide new ideas and methods.