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VAN 小组自1981年以来一直宣称正在进行地震预报,他们对地震两个基本参数,即震级和位置的预报约束非常宽松。大部分 VAN 的震级预报低于M_s5.7,及具有±0.7的容限。预报震级所跨的不确定性有如此的范围,以致这样的预报不能直率地认为是成功的。根据 VAN 对空间解的主张,如果成功的话,可能包含一个震级(M_s)8.0的震源范围的线性尺度,但并没合适地将震级限制到 M_s7.5那样大。在可以进行的细致判定前,VAN 不仅仅需要改进其对震级及位置预报的容限,还需要用类似于地震台站报告的事前公布的和公共存档的完整地震电信号的数据组,给出一个明确的预报假设论述。
The VAN team has been claiming that seismic prediction is under way since 1981 and that they have very loose constraints on the prediction of the two fundamental parameters of the earthquake, magnitude and location. Most VANs have a magnitude forecast below M_s5.7 and a tolerance of ± 0.7. The magnitude of the uncertainty across the magnitude of the forecasters is such that such forecasts can not be considered straightforwardly successful. According to VAN’s claim on the solution to space, it may contain a linear scale of the source range of magnitude 8.0 if it succeeds, but it is not appropriate to limit the magnitude to as large as M_s7.5. VAN not only needs to improve its tolerance to magnitude and location prediction but also to data sets of pre-published and publicly archived complete seismic electrical signals similar to those reported by seismic stations, before a detailed judgment can be made A clear forecast hypothetical discussion.