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利用华东446个气象站点1961—2007年日平均气温资料和RegCM3模式预估的2010—2039年日平均气温资料,分别以10℃和22℃作为取暖和降温度日的基础温度,采用度日法分析了气温变化对华东居住建筑取暖和降温耗能的影响。结果表明,1961—2007年间,整个华东取暖度日、取暖和降温总度日基本都呈减少趋势,且北部减少多于南部;降温度日在华东多数地区都呈增加趋势,以长江三角洲、浙江东部和福建东部沿海增加较多。2010—2039年间,整个华东取暖度日都将继续减少,且北部减少多于东南部;降温度日都将继续增加,且南部增加多于北部和沿海;取暖和降温总度日在华东北部呈减少趋势,而在南部呈增加趋势。过去47 a间,华东取暖度日的减少远超过降温度日的增加,气温变化总体上有利于居住建筑耗能的减少。未来30a间,华东取暖和降温度日的变化幅度接近,气温变化对居住建筑耗能的正负影响基本相抵消。
Based on the daily mean air temperature data of 446 meteorological stations in East China from 1961 to 2007 and the estimated daily average air temperature from 2010 to 2039 in RegCM3 mode, 10 ℃ and 22 ℃ were taken as the basic temperature for heating and cooling day respectively, The influence of temperature change on heating and cooling energy consumption of residential buildings in East China is analyzed. The results show that during the period from 1961 to 2007, the daily average temperature of heating and cooling in the whole of East China are decreasing, while the decreasing in the northern part is more than that in the southern part. The temperature drop days are increasing in most parts of East China. Taking the Yangtze River Delta, The eastern and eastern coasts of Fujian increased more. From 2010 to 2039, the entire day in east China will continue to decrease, and the northern part will decrease more than the southeast part; the temperature will continue to increase in the south and increase more in the south than in the north and the coast; the total day of heating and cooling will be in northeast China Reduce the trend, but in the south showed an increasing trend. In the past 47 years, the decrease of heating degree in East China far exceeded the increasing temperature, and the change of temperature generally contributed to the reduction of energy consumption in residential buildings. In the next 30 years, the change range of daily heating and temperature drop in East China is similar, and the positive and negative effects of temperature changes on residential building energy consumption basically offset each other.