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基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)分析,提出了下述观点:发展低碳经济是协调经济发展与保障能源安全、应对气候变化的基本途径,其基本目标是在促进经济发展的同时,减少碳排放量或者实现经济发展与碳排放的分离。但是,发展低碳经济并不是一个轻而易举的过程,从长期来看,一般需要依次跨越三大高峰,即能源消费强度或碳排放强度的倒U型曲线高峰、人均能源消费或者碳排放的倒U型曲线高峰以及能源消费总量或者碳排放总量的倒U型曲线高峰。第一个高峰相对容易跨越,而第二、三个高峰则比较困难。这同时也意味着应对气候变化不能完全脱离发展阶段,发达国家和发展中国家的温室气体减排目标和重点应有所不同。发达国家应以人均碳排放和碳排放总量减排为重点,而发展中国家则应以降低碳排放强度为目标导向。中国目前虽然已跨越能源消费或碳排放强度高峰,但尚未实现稳定下降。因此,从近中期来看,应该把提高能效和降低碳排放强度作为发展低碳经济、应对气候变化的核心,进一步加大科技创新和政策制度创新力度。
Based on the analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), the following viewpoints are put forward: Developing low-carbon economy is the basic way to coordinate economic development and ensure energy security and address climate change. Its basic goal is to reduce economic growth while promoting economic development Carbon emissions or the separation of economic development and carbon emissions. However, developing a low-carbon economy is not an easy process. In the long run, it usually takes three major peaks in turn: the peak of an inverted U-curve of energy consumption intensity or carbon intensity, the per capita energy consumption, or the inverted U Peak curve and the peak of inverted U curve of total energy consumption or total carbon emissions. The first peak is relatively easy to cross, while the second and third peaks are more difficult. It also means that climate change can not be completely separated from the stage of development. The targets and priorities of greenhouse gas reduction in developed and developing countries should be different. Developed countries should focus on per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions reduction, while developing countries should aim to reduce carbon intensity. Although China has now crossed the peak of its energy consumption or carbon intensity, it has not yet achieved a steady decline. Therefore, in the short term, energy efficiency and carbon intensity should be taken as the core of developing a low-carbon economy and coping with climate change, and the innovation of science and technology and the innovation of policies and systems should be further strengthened.