事物是确定的,认识是相对的,这决定了以还原过去案件事实真相为己任的司法证明活动只能达到一个盖然性认知,而概率理论正是研究不确定现象的学科,盖然性架起了概率理论适用于司法证明领域的桥梁。从上世纪新证据学兴起至今,关于概率理论在司法证明领域的适用问题就成为学者们经久不衰的争论热点,遗憾的是学界相关的理论建树并未跟上概率普遍应用于司法证明的实践步伐,导致概率的适用经常陷入一些不必要的误区,适用的合理性也不断遭到质疑。 Things are definite, and cognition is relative, which determines that only a probabilistic cognition can be reached in judicial identification activities that restores the factual truth of past cases. Probability theory is just a subject that studies the phenomenon of uncertainty. Theory applies to the field of judicial evidence in the bridge. From the rise of the new evidence theory in the last century to the present, the application of probabilistic theory in the field of judicial proof has become a hot topic of debate among scholars. Unfortunately, the academic achievements related to academic circles have not kept up with the practice that probability is generally applied to judicial proof The pace, resulting in the application of probability often plunged into unnecessary errors, the rationality of the application is also constantly being questioned.