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中国居民消费需求不足是影响国民经济可持续发展的一个重大经济问题。本文利用协整理论和中国1978—2007年时间序列数据,对影响中国居民消费率的因素进行了实证研究。计量结果发现,农村基尼系数与中国居民消费率无关,城镇基尼系数、GDP偏移率、初始资产率与中国居民消费率呈显著负相关关系,城乡收入分配差距相对指数、按不变价格计算的GDP年增长率与中国居民消费率呈显著正相关关系。以上结果隐含着如下政策含义:当前要扩大内需,缩小城乡收入分配差距并不十分重要,但缩小城镇内部收入分配差距,保持GDP较快增长是最为重要的。必须保持中国国民经济平稳地增长。要进一步建立健全社会卫生医疗、住房建设、失业养老等保障保险制度,同时加大对高等教育、高中教育、义务教育等的投入,降低中国居民的预防性储蓄。
The lack of consumer demand of Chinese residents is a major economic issue that affects the sustainable development of the national economy. In this paper, co-integration theory and China’s time series data from 1978 to 2007, the factors that affect the consumption rate of Chinese residents conducted an empirical study. According to the measurement results, the rural Gini coefficient has nothing to do with the Chinese resident’s consumption rate. The urban Gini coefficient, GDP offset rate, initial asset ratio have a significant negative correlation with the Chinese resident’s consumption rate. The relative index of urban-rural income distribution gap is calculated at constant prices The annual growth rate of GDP is positively related to the consumption rate of Chinese residents. The above results imply the following policy implications: At present, it is not very important to expand domestic demand and narrow the gap between urban and rural income distribution. However, it is of the utmost importance to narrow the income distribution gap within urban areas and maintain a relatively rapid GDP growth. The steady growth of China’s national economy must be maintained. To further establish and improve the social health care, housing construction, unemployment insurance and other insurance system, while increasing investment in higher education, high school education, compulsory education, reduce the preventive savings of Chinese residents.