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地下水水质模型是由水流问题和水动力弥散问题耦合而成。本文从Ｔａｙ－ｌｏｒ展开式入手，结合有限元等方法，直接推导某节点浓度的均值和方差、协方差的表达式，把水流问题和水动力弥散问题统一进行考虑，避免了计算过程中随机变量的增加，提高了计算效率，为地下水水质模型的随机模拟提供了新的计算方法。
The groundwater quality model is a combination of water flow problems and hydrodynamic dispersion problems. This paper starts with the Tay-lor expansion method, and combines the finite element method and other methods to directly derive the mean and variance of a node concentration and the expression of covariance. The water flow problem and the hydrodynamic dispersion problem are considered uniformly, which avoids the random variables Increase the computational efficiency and provide a new calculation method for the stochastic simulation of groundwater quality model.