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选择黑龙江省作为研究区域,根据主栽水稻生育期内所需积温选取3个代表性品种,重点分析增温和大气CO_2肥效作用对不同熟性品种水稻产量的影响.采用2013年的逐日气象资料及开顶式气室(OTC)(3个CO_2浓度:390、450和550μmol·mol~(-1))试验资料对品种的遗传参数进行调试;然后采用经验证的CERES-Rice作物模型分别模拟了3个CO_2浓度水平下,伴随温度升高1、2、3和4℃时早、中、晚熟品种水稻产量.结果表明:随CO_2浓度升高,不同品种水稻产量均上升;随温度升高,早熟品种产量持续下降,中、晚熟品种产量先上升再下降.若不考虑CO_2肥效作用,除了中熟和晚熟品种在增温1℃时会有3.1%和0.27%的小幅增产外,其余均表现为减产,其中早熟品种减产幅度最大,增温4℃时减产高达57.7%,而中熟和晚熟品种减产10%左右.若考虑CO_2肥效作用,450μmol·mol~(-1)CO_2浓度下,中熟和晚熟品种在增温2℃时仍增产0.75%和3.2%;550μmol·mol~(-1)CO_2浓度下,中熟品种在增温3℃时仍增产4.5%,晚熟品种在增温4℃时仍增产0.39%.而无论是否考虑CO_2肥效作用,早熟品种在增温作用下均表现大幅度减产.与不考虑CO_2肥效相比,大气CO_2肥效作用有效提高了水稻产量,但CO_2肥效对增产的贡献率在不同品种间差异不明显,且贡献率均小于10%.
Heilongjiang Province was chosen as the research area, and three representative cultivars were selected according to the accumulated temperature during main growth period of rice. The effects of warming and atmospheric CO 2 fertilization on the yield of different mature rice varieties were analyzed. By using the daily meteorological data of 2013 And OTC (three CO 2 concentrations: 390, 450 and 550 μmol · mol -1) were used to test the genetic parameters of the cultivars. Then the simulated CERES-Rice crop model was used to simulate The yield of early, middle and late maturing rice varieties with the increase of CO 2 concentration at 3 CO 2 levels was investigated.The results showed that with the increase of CO 2 concentration, the yield of different varieties of rice increased; , The yield of early-maturing varieties continued to decline, and the yield of middle- and late-maturing varieties first increased and then decreased.If the effect of CO_2 fertilization was not considered, except moderate and late-maturing varieties with a slight increase of 3.1% and 0.27% at 1 ℃ warming, The results showed that the yield of early-maturing varieties was the largest, with the yield reduction as high as 57.7% at 4 ℃ and 10% of middle-maturing and late maturing varieties.When CO2 concentration was 450μmol · mol ~ (-1) Medium maturity and late maturing varieties still warming at 2 ℃ Yield increased by 0.75% and 3.2%, respectively. Under medium concentration of 550μmol · mol -1, medium maturing varieties increased 4.5% at 3 ℃ and late matured varieties increased 0.39% at 4 ℃, CO_2 fertilization and early maturing varieties all showed significant reduction under the effect of increasing temperature.Compared with no effect of CO 2, the effect of atmospheric CO 2 fertilization effectively increased the yield of rice, but the contribution of CO 2 fertilization to increasing yield was not obvious among different varieties , And the contribution rate is less than 10%.