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针对METRIC模型中以备件期望短缺数计算的稳态可用度模型能否直接转换适用于非稳态时变可用度模型,扩展METRIC理论,分别建立了仅以备件期望短缺数计算的时变可用度模型和以备件期望短缺数及方差计算的时变可用度模型。在保障系统达到稳态(修复概率为1)和处于非稳态(修复概率小于1)情况下,分别采用两种时变可用度模型计算表决结构单元和串联结构单元的可用度,并与蒙特卡洛仿真模型计算得到的结果进行对比分析。结果表明:以备件期望短缺数计算的时变可用度模型仅在串联结构单元且保障系统达到稳态时与仿真可用度值一致,适合于装备全寿命周期内备件配置优化的计算;以备件期望短缺数及方差计算的时变可用度模型无论保障系统处于稳态和非稳态,适应性均较强,适合于任务期作战单元备件配置优化计算。
Aiming at whether the steady-state availability model calculated from the expected number of spare parts shortage in the METRIC model can be directly transformed into the unsteady time-varying availability model, the METRIC theory is extended to establish the time-varying availability Model and time-varying availability model with the expected number of spares shortfalls and variance calculations. Two kinds of time-varying availability models are respectively used to calculate the availability of voting structural elements and series structural elements under the condition that the guaranteed system reaches steady state (repair probability 1) and unstable state (repair probability less than 1) Carlo simulation model to calculate the results for comparative analysis. The results show that the time-varying availability model based on expected number of spare parts is consistent with simulation availability only when the unit is connected in series and the system is stable. It is suitable for the calculation of spare parts configuration optimization during the whole life cycle of the equipment. The model of time-varying availability of short-term number and variance calculation has strong adaptability both in steady-state and non-steady-state, and is suitable for optimizing the configuration of spare parts in combat units.