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目的评估2016年3月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计全国3月总报告事件数和病例数将较2月有所升高。近期我国已出现寨卡病毒病输入病例,预计3月我国将会继续发现输入病例,广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等重点省份存在发生本地传播可能。当前处于人感染禽流感高发季节,我国将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感以及其他亚型动物流感的散发病例。3月中上旬,全国将陆续进入手足口病流行季节。中东呼吸综合征在沙特、阿联酋和阿曼等地持续有散发病例报告,我国仍存在输入风险,但进一步播散的风险低。结论 2016年3月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将较2月上升;需关注寨卡病毒病、人禽流感、手足口病、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in March 2016 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the monitoring data of recent infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the previous public health emergencies and the epidemiological analysis of infectious diseases, the number of reported cases and cases in March was expected to increase from February. Recently, there have been cases of imported Zika virus in China. It is estimated that in March, China will continue to find input cases. Local transmission may occur in key provinces such as Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang. Currently in the high incidence of human infection with bird flu, China will continue to have human cases of H7N9 avian influenza and other subtype of animal flu. In early March, the country will gradually enter the season of hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) continues to have case reports distributed in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman. There is still a risk of importation in our country, but the risk of further spread is low. Conclusions The outbreak of public health emergencies and infectious diseases in China in March 2016 is similar to the previous years and will be higher than in February. The epidemic of Zika virus, human bird flu, hand-foot-mouth disease and Middle East respiratory syndrome Public health risks from outbreaks.