论文部分内容阅读
2010年沪胶市场行情呈现先抑后扬的格局,最终以53%的涨幅完美收官。支撑沪胶强劲走势的主要因素有:全球通胀担忧加剧;气候原因导致天然橡胶供应紧俏;国内汽车产销旺盛提振了橡胶消费。2011年市场压力将有所增大,待割胶开始后供需矛盾或略有缓和,且预期有国储抛储和调低进口关税的可能;同时通过收紧流动性抑制通胀将是贯穿2011年全年经济政策的主基调,因此基本面和政策面的支撑都将有所弱化。但是2011年国际市场流动性宽裕的局面不会改变,输入性通胀担忧仍然存在;国际原油价格震荡上行概率增大;天然橡胶市场不排除国际投机资金介入的可能。2011年市场形势仍较为复杂,第1季度基本面或继续占据优势并支撑天然橡胶价格震荡上行,之后政策面可能成为主导,天然橡胶价格有一定回调需求,但天然橡胶价格已经步入高位时代,回调力度将随货币政策的调控强度而定,总体略微呈现前高后低态势,预计上方阻力位为42000～45000元,下方支撑位为25000～26000元。
Hujiao market in 2010 showed the pattern of Xianyihouyang Yang, ending up with a perfect ending of 53% increase. The main factors that support the strong trend of Hujiao are: worsening global inflationary concerns, tight supply of natural rubber due to climatic reasons, and strong domestic automobile sales boosted rubber consumption. Market pressure will increase in 2011, after the start of tapping the contradiction between supply and demand or a slight easing, and is expected to throw the State Reserve and reduce import tariffs may be; while reducing liquidity by tightening liquidity will be throughout the year 2011 The main tone of the annual economic policy, so the fundamentals and policy support will be some weakened. However, the situation of ample liquidity in the international market will not change in 2011, fears of imported inflation still exist, the probability of upward volatility of international crude oil prices will increase, and the possibility of involvement of international speculative funds will not be ruled out in the natural rubber market. In 2011, the market situation is still relatively complicated. In the first quarter, the fundamentals may continue to dominate and support the upward spiral of natural rubber prices. Afterwards, the policy may become the dominant factor and the price of natural rubber will have a certain demand for callback. However, the price of natural rubber has entered a high era, The strength of the callback will depend on the intensity of the monetary policy adjustment. The overall upward trend is slightly lower and the upward resistance is expected to reach 42,000 ~ 45,000 yuan while the bottom support level is 25,000-26,000 yuan.