建始三年误入宫室的陈持弓本事,引发史家诸多解读。本文结合西汉时期的水患形势和人水关系变化情况,对陈持弓事件的发生发展予以梳理考察。陈持弓事件看似偶然,但在其发生过程中有一定必然性。陈持弓事件与长安惊恐乱象之间并非直接的线性进程,而是西汉建始三年长安惊恐过程中的一个另类注解。西汉时期的人水关系,既有兴水利协理水力造福于民的方面,也有水患频发、水力肆虐、为害百姓的方面。西汉时期人水关系的演变基本呈现三个阶段:武帝以前人力胜于水力,水利兴盛;昭宣之时人水关系愈趋缓和,人水协理势均力敌;元成以后,水力暴涨,人水关系失去平衡状态,水害肆虐,闻水色变而长安惊恐。也因为这个原因,陈持弓事件看似偶然,其实建始年间长安城中自有女孽入宫的必然性。 The beginning of three years into the palace Chen Chan bow ability, triggering many interpretations of historians. Combining with the changes of the relationship between floods and human-water in the Western Han Dynasty, this paper reviews the occurrence and development of Chen’s bow incident. Chen Chia-ching incident may seem accidental, but in the course of its occurrence there is a certain necessity. There is no direct linear process between Chen Chia-k’ung’s incident and Chang-an’s panic-stricken chaos, but an alternative annotation in the process of panic-stricken Changan in the three years of the Western Han Dynasty. The relationship between people and water in the Western Han Dynasty, both water and water benefits to the benefit of the people, as well as frequent floods, water raging, the people’s side. During the Western Han Dynasty, the evolution of human-water relations basically showed three stages: before the Emperor of Wu dynasty, human power was better than that of water power and water conservancy flourished; when the relationship between human and water became more and more subdued at the time of Zhao Xuan, human-water association was evenly matched; Balance, water raging, smell changes and Changan panic. Also for this reason, Chen Chia-ching incident may seem accidental, in fact, built in Chang’an City, the inevitable nature of the female invaders into the palace.