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《未来学家》杂志近期以“即将来临的中国世纪”为题,发表了经合组织的长篇报告《21世纪的中国:长期的全球影响》的摘要,对我国未来的经济发展进行了如下评论: 到下个世纪的第一个四分之一左右,中国可能超过美国、德国以及其他二十世纪的经济强国而成为世界上经济最为强大的国家。自从1978年邓小平开始改革开放以使中国经济融入世界以来,中国官方公布的国民生产总值平均增长率约达9％,比改革开放以前二十年的增长速度提高了4.5％。但中国何时才能成为世界头号经济强国将取决于她是否能保持这种惊人的增长速度,以及这种速度能保持多久。 一组国际经济学家在上述的《二十一世纪的中国》报告中所提出的结论认为,这要看中国能否处理好几个内部结构问题,还有国际社会在与中国打交道时所采取的政策。
In a recent article entitled “The upcoming Chinese century,” Future Journalists published a summary of the OECD long report “China in the 21st Century: Long-term Global Implications,” commenting on the future economic development of our country as follows By the first quarter of the next century, China may overtake the United States, Germany and other twentieth-century economic powers as the most economically powerful countries in the world. Since Deng Xiaoping started its reform and opening up in 1978 to bring China’s economy into the world, China’s official GDP growth rate was about 9% on average, an increase of 4.5% over the two decades prior to the reform and opening up. But when China can become the world’s top economic power will depend on whether she can maintain this phenomenal growth rate and how long this rate can last. The conclusion reached by a group of international economists in the above-mentioned “Report on China in the Twenty-first Century” argues that this depends on whether China can handle several internal structural issues and what the international community adopted when dealing with China policy.